确认您不是来自美国或菲律宾

在此声明,本人明确声明并确认:
  • 我不是美国公民或居民
  • 我不是菲律宾居民
  • 本人没有直接或间接拥有美国居民10%以上的股份/投票权/权益,和/或没有通过其他方式控制美国公民或居民。
  • 本人没有直接或间接的美国公民或居民10%以上的股份/投票权/权益的所有权,和/或受美国公民或居民其他任何方式行使的控制。
  • 根据FATCA 1504(a)对附属关系的定义,本人与美国公民或居民没有任何附属关系。
  • 我知道做出虚假声明所需付的责任。
就本声明而言,所有美国附属国家和地区均等同于美国的主要领土。本人承诺保护Octa Markets Incorporated及其董事和高级职员免受因违反本声明而产生或与之相关的任何索赔。
我们致力于保护您的隐私和您个人信息的安全。我们只收集电子邮件,以提供有关我们产品和服务的特别优惠和重要信息。通过提交您的电子邮件地址,您同意接收我们的此类信件。如果您想取消订阅或有任何问题或疑虑,请联系我们的客户支持。
Back

DXY's round trip stalls, bulls eye 38.2% retracement prospects

  • DXY on the comeback ina classic Fibo retracement. 
  • Positioning favours the upside as CIVID risks are once again taking precedence.

The US dollar gained at the start of the week, measured by the DXY which is an index (or measure) of the value of the United States dollar relative to a basket of foreign currencies.

It is a weighted geometric mean of the dollar's value relative to following select currencies:

  • Euro (EUR), 57.6% weight.
  • Japanese yen (JPY) 13.6% weight.
  • Pound sterling (GBP), 11.9% weight.
  • Canadian dollar (CAD), 9.1% weight.
  • Swedish krona (SEK), 4.2% weight.
  • Swiss franc (CHF) 3.6% weight.

Monday was a choppy day on a holiday-shortened week, but the news of a fast-spreading new coronavirus strain prevalent in Britain prompted investors to seek safety in the greenback.

The dollar index hit a 10-day high in London at 91.01 but then turned lower on the day to finish up the New York session at 90.07. 

A number of factors have been in play, from overstretched positing data to hard macro fundamentals that include stimulus, Brexit risks and covid. 

GBP was a major contender in the dollar's rise as two-year British government bonds dropped to a record low while Brexit remained up in the air. 

Meanwhile, as the day went by the US fiscal package started to take up some of the spotlight which stripped the safe-haven bid out of the greenback. However, this is already baked into the markets that are fully anticipating the package. 

The MSCI's gauge of stocks across the globe IACWI, which is a useful barometer for risk appetite, has declined 0.81. 

Covid taking precedence

The US dollar has traditionally been the currency of choice during negative covid twists and turns. 

The fact that new coronavirus strain has only just emerged and that is said to be up to 70% more transmissible than the original is highly concerning.

It has already put some 16 million Britons under tougher lockdowns and prompted several countries to shut their borders to the UK. 

Meanwhile, looking at the latest positioning of the US dollar, compared to the components of the DXY, we can see that 

Net short USD positions have leapt to their highest levels since March 2011. However, there are clear signs of fraying sentiment this week and positing squaring is on the cards.

This might mean that the downside in the dollar is going to be capped into the year-end. 

''Going forward it is possible that risk appetite could be kept in check by the realisation that economic data are likely to worsen before they improve,'' analysts at Rabobank argued. 

DXY technical analysis

It is not unusual to see such volatile moves at this time of year when volumes are thin, but price action analysis during such fundamentally driven markets can be futile, especially while liquidity dries up.

Nevertheless, traders might expect a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement following this uninterrupted move to the downside:

When is the Australian Retail Sales and how could they affect AUD/USD?

Early Tuesday, the market sees the preliminary reading for the November month Retail Sales data from Australia at 00:30 GMT. Following successive two
了解更多 Previous

USD/CAD Price Analysis: Fades recovery moves above 1.2800

USD/CAD eases to 1.2844, down 0.07% intraday, during the initial Asian session on Tuesday. The quote jumped to the highest in three weeks before stepp
了解更多 Next