RBA: Downgrade in the near-term growth outlook looming - TDS

Analysts at TD Securities point out that its RBA decision day tomorrow, and the first communication from the Bank since early December.

Key Quotes

“After extending the record pause in the 1.5% cash rate, the markets eagerly await the RBA’s take on recent market turmoil and Fed pause as well as changes to the forecasts. The most obvious alteration will be a downgrade in the near-term growth outlook. Do not expect the policy statement to repeat that the next move is up for the cash rate, that will be in Friday’s Statement on Monetary Policy.”

“Ahead of the RBA, the Dec trade surplus is expected to bump up to +$A2.8b (mkt +$A2.225b) due to exports +1.6%/m as LNG flows and -1%/m decline in imports (prior record imports from China reversed). Retail sales for Dec and Dec qtr is expected to be flat/m and +0.7%/q respectively (mkt flat and +0.5%/q).”