UK Q1 GDP: growth slowed, the question is by how much - Danske Bank

Analysts from Danske Bank, estimate that next Friday, GDP data from Q1 will show an annual growth rate of 1.4%

Key Quotes: 

“The most important release in the UK next week is the first estimate of GDP growth in Q1 due out on Friday. According to indicators, GDP growth slowed in Q1 compared to Q4 17, the question is more by how much. While the PMIs suggest GDP growth is likely to have slowed to 0.3%, the NIESR GDP estimate is as low as 0.2%. We estimate GDP growth was 0.25%, implying an annual growth rate of 1.4% y/y (don’t be surprised if it is only 1.3%), which is among the lowest in the advanced economies.”

“Looking at real wage growth and business investments’ intention, it is difficult to see a scenario with much higher GDP growth in the UK this year despite the political agreement on transition.”