Market outlooks for the antipodeans: Aussie in neutral - Westpac

Analysts at Scotiabank explained the market outlooks for the antipodeans.

Key Quotes:

"AUD/USD 1 day:  In a more neutral state today, the 0.7500 area holding for now.

AUD/USD 1-3 month: While further gains to around 0.77 are possible during the month ahead, driven in part by the faltering US dollar and yield-chasing flows, the AUD is losing energy (perhaps a reflection of its declining yield advantage). By year end, there’s a case for a correction towards 0.74 if the Fed tightens in December as we expect. (13 Sep)

NZD/USD 1 day: In a more neutral state today, the 0.7300 support area holding.

NZD/USD 1-3 month:  During the month ahead another probe above 0.75 is possible, driven by good NZ economic news, a still-vulnerable US dollar, and yield-chasing inflows. By year end, there’s a case for a correction towards 0.70 if the Fed tightens in December as we expect. (13 Sep)

AUD/NZD 1 day: Remains vulnerable to breaking below 1.0265.

AUD/NZD 1-3 month: During the month ahead, we expect further losses into the 1.01-1.02 zone, partly driven by a declining AU/NZ commodity price ratio. By year-end, we expect a rebound towards 1.06, the cross well below fair value implied by interest rates, commodity prices and risk sentiment.  (8 Sep)

AU swap yields 1 day: The 2yr should open at 1.66% while the 10yr should open at 2.22%.

AU swap yields 1-3 month: If the RBA sits tight at 1.5% during the remainder of this year the 2yr should eventually find a base around 1.60%. However the main risk is that markets continue to price in a sub-1.5% cash rate. (15 Aug)

NZ swap yields 1 day: NZ 2yr swap rates should down 1bp at 2.04%, while the 10yr should open unchanged at 2.57%.

NZ swap yields 1-3 month: Slightly lower. The OCR is likely to be cut to 1.75% in November. That should result in a 2yr swap rate of around 1.90%, although the risk is it could be lower if markets expect a 1.5% terminal OCR. (15 Aug)."