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22 Feb 2016
Political crisis in the UK - BBH
Analysts at Brown Brothers Harriman explained that a vote to leave the EU risks a political crisis in the UK.
Key Quotes:
"There would likely to be a snap election as defeat of the government's position in a public referendum would appear to be tantamount to a public vote of no confidence. Brexit would also provide the catalyst for another Scottish referendum.
Some officials, including European Council President Tusk, have warned that other countries might follow the UK strategy, precipitating a larger crisis in Europe. The timing could not be worse. The refugee crisis is a corrosive influence on the EU, and Merkel's leadership has been sapped. At the same time, a Central European bloc (Poland, Hungary, Czech, and Slovakia) has emerged that is tugging in a different direction.
A destabilized Europe adversely impacts the UK within or without the EU. The UK is tied to Europe in ways that leaving the EU will not sever. Ironically, the UK may find it has less sovereignty if it leaves the EU than within it."
Key Quotes:
"There would likely to be a snap election as defeat of the government's position in a public referendum would appear to be tantamount to a public vote of no confidence. Brexit would also provide the catalyst for another Scottish referendum.
Some officials, including European Council President Tusk, have warned that other countries might follow the UK strategy, precipitating a larger crisis in Europe. The timing could not be worse. The refugee crisis is a corrosive influence on the EU, and Merkel's leadership has been sapped. At the same time, a Central European bloc (Poland, Hungary, Czech, and Slovakia) has emerged that is tugging in a different direction.
A destabilized Europe adversely impacts the UK within or without the EU. The UK is tied to Europe in ways that leaving the EU will not sever. Ironically, the UK may find it has less sovereignty if it leaves the EU than within it."