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1 Feb 2016
RBI could keep its policy unchanged – TDS
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - Strategists at TD Securities see the RBI keeping its monetary stance unchanged at its meeting later in the week.
Key Quotes
“We expect RBI to keep all its policy rates on hold, in particular the Repurchase Rate will remain at 6.75% and the Cash Reserve Ratio at 4.0%. This is in line with the almost unanimous consensus”.
“Inflation has been moving up in recent months and was running at 5.61% Y/Y in December, but the RBI expects it to start plateauing in subsequent months”.
“With the RBI still waiting for more of the past policy rate reductions to be passed through by banks, we think the RBI has no pressing need to change rates”.
“We think the RBI may have room for at least another 25bp cut this year, provided that INR is reasonably stable; inflation does not exceed the projected trajectory; and the government remains committed to fiscal consolidation”.
Key Quotes
“We expect RBI to keep all its policy rates on hold, in particular the Repurchase Rate will remain at 6.75% and the Cash Reserve Ratio at 4.0%. This is in line with the almost unanimous consensus”.
“Inflation has been moving up in recent months and was running at 5.61% Y/Y in December, but the RBI expects it to start plateauing in subsequent months”.
“With the RBI still waiting for more of the past policy rate reductions to be passed through by banks, we think the RBI has no pressing need to change rates”.
“We think the RBI may have room for at least another 25bp cut this year, provided that INR is reasonably stable; inflation does not exceed the projected trajectory; and the government remains committed to fiscal consolidation”.