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25 Jan 2016
Australia: Business confidence remains resilent - NAB
FXStreet (Bali) - Australia's December business conditions came in at 7 vs 10, while confidence stood at 3 vs 5 ,with NAB noting that business confidence remains resilent to financial market turmoil (for now), while business conditions suggest non-mining recovery remains on track.
Key Quotes - NAB
Recent financial market turmoil highlights the risks to the outlook, but has not fundamentally changed our view of the Australian economy. Business conditions are well above average in fundamental (trend) terms, and business confidence has been surprisingly robust in the current financial environment. Positive business conditions in most industries suggests a relatively broad based recovery outside the mining sector (services leading the way).
In light of recent financial market turmoil, today’s NAB Monthly Business Survey provides a timely indication of how market movements have so far affected business sentiment. While business confidence took a step back this month, the index remained encouragingly resilient – and positive – with the index only falling from +5 to +3.
According to NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster: “While recent big declines in oil and equity markets highlight potential risks to the global outlook, relatively positive business conditions appear to have, so far, acted to reassure business sentiment”.
Indeed, the survey continues to show business conditions at quite elevated levels, despite also easing a little in the month. The NAB Business Conditions Index fell to +7 points over the period (from +10 in November), which is still above the long-run average of the survey (+5 points).
Mr Oster noted that we take some comfort from the result, stating that “this outcome suggests there are no real signs (beyond normal monthly volatility) that there is a fundamental weakening in the non-mining recovery”. In saying that, Mr Oster points out that resilience in both business confidence and conditions needs to be maintained over coming months if the non-mining recovery is to remain on track.
Key Quotes - NAB
Recent financial market turmoil highlights the risks to the outlook, but has not fundamentally changed our view of the Australian economy. Business conditions are well above average in fundamental (trend) terms, and business confidence has been surprisingly robust in the current financial environment. Positive business conditions in most industries suggests a relatively broad based recovery outside the mining sector (services leading the way).
In light of recent financial market turmoil, today’s NAB Monthly Business Survey provides a timely indication of how market movements have so far affected business sentiment. While business confidence took a step back this month, the index remained encouragingly resilient – and positive – with the index only falling from +5 to +3.
According to NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster: “While recent big declines in oil and equity markets highlight potential risks to the global outlook, relatively positive business conditions appear to have, so far, acted to reassure business sentiment”.
Indeed, the survey continues to show business conditions at quite elevated levels, despite also easing a little in the month. The NAB Business Conditions Index fell to +7 points over the period (from +10 in November), which is still above the long-run average of the survey (+5 points).
Mr Oster noted that we take some comfort from the result, stating that “this outcome suggests there are no real signs (beyond normal monthly volatility) that there is a fundamental weakening in the non-mining recovery”. In saying that, Mr Oster points out that resilience in both business confidence and conditions needs to be maintained over coming months if the non-mining recovery is to remain on track.