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3 Sep 2015
Polish Zloty seen gaining traction medium term – BAML
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - Analysts at BAML expect the Polish currency to pick up pace in the next months.
Key Quotes
“Growth is largely stable and on track to our forecast of 3.5% this year. 2Q GDP in nonseasonally adjusted terms was below expectations at 3.3% yoy, from 3.6% in 1Q”.
“However, when adjusted for seasonality, growth accelerated slightly to 3.6% yoy in 2Q from 3.4%. Business and consumer survey data in the recent months suggest a continuation of this growth trend”.
“Consumers should still benefit from a weak inflation environment, though private consumption growth may slow from the high rate of 3.9% in 1Q, as prices have edged up since 2Q and consumer confidence has likely peaked”.
“We would also look upon any material underperformance around October elections as an opportunity to buy PLN from a longer-term perspective”.
“From a cross-EM perspective, the likely greater volatility in low-inflation Asian FX markets after the CNY devaluation is also a potential positive for CEE currencies like PLN, HUF and CZK, which may be able to gain support as alternative safe havens in EM”.
Key Quotes
“Growth is largely stable and on track to our forecast of 3.5% this year. 2Q GDP in nonseasonally adjusted terms was below expectations at 3.3% yoy, from 3.6% in 1Q”.
“However, when adjusted for seasonality, growth accelerated slightly to 3.6% yoy in 2Q from 3.4%. Business and consumer survey data in the recent months suggest a continuation of this growth trend”.
“Consumers should still benefit from a weak inflation environment, though private consumption growth may slow from the high rate of 3.9% in 1Q, as prices have edged up since 2Q and consumer confidence has likely peaked”.
“We would also look upon any material underperformance around October elections as an opportunity to buy PLN from a longer-term perspective”.
“From a cross-EM perspective, the likely greater volatility in low-inflation Asian FX markets after the CNY devaluation is also a potential positive for CEE currencies like PLN, HUF and CZK, which may be able to gain support as alternative safe havens in EM”.