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3 Jun 2015
NBP could remain on hold throughout 2015 – TDS
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - In light of today’s NBP decision, Strategist Cristian Maggio at TD Securities expects the central bank to keep its monetary stance at least until next year.
Key Quotes
“The NBP held the base rate unchanged at 1.50% today as forecast by the unanimous consensus, including ourselves. The following press conference did not provide much more colour, other than reiterating a view that is based on the expectation that growth will remain robust in the coming quarters, while inflation remains negative “due to the moderate growth in demand and the continuing output gap,” and will continue to grind higher very slowly”.
“We remain under the impression that the MPC is pretty happy about the state of the Polish economy, while the NBP’s conviction on the inflation outlook seems not as strong and convincing. Therefore, we remain of the view that the NBP is likely to remain on hold until next year, but that the risks on rates remain to the downside”.
“As far as EURPLN is concerned, Belka attributed recent PLN weakness to the market anticipation of Fed hikes, and the Greek problems. Against this backdrop, we think the ECB’s ongoing QE program will bias EURPLN lower”.
Key Quotes
“The NBP held the base rate unchanged at 1.50% today as forecast by the unanimous consensus, including ourselves. The following press conference did not provide much more colour, other than reiterating a view that is based on the expectation that growth will remain robust in the coming quarters, while inflation remains negative “due to the moderate growth in demand and the continuing output gap,” and will continue to grind higher very slowly”.
“We remain under the impression that the MPC is pretty happy about the state of the Polish economy, while the NBP’s conviction on the inflation outlook seems not as strong and convincing. Therefore, we remain of the view that the NBP is likely to remain on hold until next year, but that the risks on rates remain to the downside”.
“As far as EURPLN is concerned, Belka attributed recent PLN weakness to the market anticipation of Fed hikes, and the Greek problems. Against this backdrop, we think the ECB’s ongoing QE program will bias EURPLN lower”.