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1 Jun 2015
Greek scenario threatens to deteriorate – NAB
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The FX Strategy team at NAB gave its opinion on the probable scenario for Greece in the upcoming months.
Key Quotes
“While we do not believe a Greek default and/or exit is the central scenario, it remains a significant risk”.
“The next few months are critical, given relatively large loan, debt and interest repayments, unless there is a binding agreement between the Greek government and the IMF/ECB/Euro group triumvirate”.
“We estimate that the risks to the EUR range from a fall of 20% at worst, before recovery, to around 10% if concerns rise without any follow through default”.
“The AUD tends to underperform the EUR, even if the trouble centres on the EUR; this may yet occur if market concerns rise through the critical June to August repayment period”.
“In the event of a EUR exit, the EUR is likely to then underperform even the AUD in the first instance.
Key Quotes
“While we do not believe a Greek default and/or exit is the central scenario, it remains a significant risk”.
“The next few months are critical, given relatively large loan, debt and interest repayments, unless there is a binding agreement between the Greek government and the IMF/ECB/Euro group triumvirate”.
“We estimate that the risks to the EUR range from a fall of 20% at worst, before recovery, to around 10% if concerns rise without any follow through default”.
“The AUD tends to underperform the EUR, even if the trouble centres on the EUR; this may yet occur if market concerns rise through the critical June to August repayment period”.
“In the event of a EUR exit, the EUR is likely to then underperform even the AUD in the first instance.