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EUR/USD: maintaining a sell-on-upticks approach – KBC

FXStreet (Barcelona) - With short-term outlook for the EUR being bearish, but interest rates failing to support the dollar substantially, the KBC Bank Research Team maintains a cautious sell-on-upticks approach for EUR/USD for now.

Key Quotes

“At the end of last week, the EUR/USD rebound lost momentum. Thursday’s rejected test of the 1.1050 area might have been a sign that the euro comeback has run its course.”

“The short-term technical picture looks promising for EUR/USD bears. At the same time, the dollar doesn’t get any substantial interest rate support.”

“We keep a cautious sell-on-upticks approach for the EUR/USD cross rate. Over the next days we will know whether the current rebound is more than end of month/quarter repositioning.”

“The long-term technical picture for the EUR/USD cross rate is bearish since the pair dropped below the previous cycle low (1.1098).”

“The 1.0500 area was extensively tested, but a sustained break didn’t occur.”

“The dollar started a correction after the Fed March Fed meeting. The 1.1043/98 (post FOMC high/prev. low) resistance area was tested last week, but the test was rejected.”

“A rebound north of 1.1534, still far away, is needed however to question the downtrend.”

United Kingdom Current Account below expectations (£-21.5B) in 4Q: Actual (£-25.3B)

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United Kingdom Total Business Investment (QoQ) climbed from previous -1.2% to -0.9% in 4Q

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