ECB to pause rate hike in September but further tightening by year-end is expected – Reuters poll

The latest Reuters poll about the European Central Bank (ECB) cites the market’s mixed concerns as a slim majority expects a pause to the rate hike trajectory in September but the hot inflation also pushes some economists to expect a rate increase by the year-end.

It’s worth noting that traders are divided about the ECB rates to reach the 4.0% mark but the inaction during September gains 60% acceptance per the interest rate futures.

Key findings

Inflation was not seen at the 2.0% target until 2025 at the earliest, and more than 90% of economists polled see no rate cuts before the second quarter of 2024.

The poll also showed 53% expecting the deposit rate rises to 4.00% sometime this year, with 33 economists saying September, and four October or December.

Also read: EUR/USD steadies below 1.1000 as Fed officials welcome US inflation data, ECB signals uncertain times