USD/CAD Price Analysis: Key EMA confluence prods Loonie pair sellers near 1.3530
- USD/CAD struggles to defend corrective bounce from one-week low.
- U-turn from seven-week-old descending resistance line, downside break of fortnight-old previous support favor sellers.
- 100-EMA, 200-EMA together challenge Loonie pair bears amid steady RSI.
USD/CAD buyers struggle to keep the first daily gains in three as the quote retreats to 1.3550 heading into Monday’s European session. In doing so, the Loonie pair fades bounce off the convergence of the 100-bar and 200-bar Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs).
Given the quote’s clear pullback from a downward-sloping resistance line from early March, as well as a downside break of the previous support line stretched from April 14, the USD/CAD sellers remain hopeful. Adding strength to the downside bias are the bearish MACD signals.
However, the aforementioned key EMA confluence surrounding 1.3530 joins the downbeat RSI (14) to challenge the Loonie pair’s further declines.
In a case where the USD/CAD bears keep the reins past 1.3530, the 1.3500 round figure may act as an intermediate halt before directing the quote towards the early April swing low surrounding 1.3400. Following that, the previous monthly low of around 1.3300 will be in the spotlight.
Meanwhile, USD/CAD recovery needs validation from a two-week-long support-turned-resistance, around 1.3630 by the press time.
Even so, a convergence of the downward-sloping resistance line from early March and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of March-April downside, near 1.3655, will be important to challenge the Loonie pair buyers.
Should the USD/CAD bulls manage to keep the reins past 1.3655, the odds of witnessing a gradual rally towards the late March swing high of 1.3804 and then to the yearly high marked in March surrounding 1.3860 can’t be ruled out.
USD/CAD: Four-hour chart
Trend: Limited downside expected