US CPI: Data in line or below forecasts could seal a 25bps Feb Fed rate hike – NAB

Economists at National Australia Bank (NAB) offer a sneak peek at what they expect from Thursday’s United States Consumer Price Index (CPI) data due at 13:30 GMT.

Key quotes

“US CPI tonight was always going to be the week’s banner event and nothing so far this week has diminished the significance of it, especially with several Fed officials in recent days openly talking of the February 1 FOMC decision being between either 25bps or 50bps.”

“Which side of expectations CPI falls could well be crucial to this debate.”

“Consensus is for headline CPI to fall to 6.5% from 7.1%, and for the core (ex-food and energy) measure to 5.7% from 6.0%.”

“Data in line with or lower this would likely see markets lift their current comfort level with 25bps rather than 50bps.”